Insufficient power to drive steel prices up

Compared with most of 2016, the performance of close linkage between steel price and period price is slightly different. After entering 2017, the sensitivity and linkage of domestic steel price to period market are becoming weak. Although it is said that the futures market was once again rioted by the news that the national development and Reform Commission removed the strip steel in half a year yesterday and the notice on the immediate suspension and rectification of the registered steel smelting projects with the capacity replacement ratio less than 1:1.25, the spot market seems to have another sign of rising violence, but the overall market sentiment has not been fully driven, The overall performance of the circulation link is relatively unsatisfactory, which makes the overall pull-up of various varieties relatively weak. Today, the price of screw steel, high-speed wire and hot-rolled coil has increased moderately. The overall price of cold-rolled coil and medium and heavy plate is relatively average. Some leading regions still have the operation of taking advantage of the opportunity to ship goods, which has restrained the price increase. In the spot market, whether from the psychological operation of merchants, the actual performance of shipment volume, or the relatively high inventory pressure, it is difficult to be driven by external forces and continue to rise. The network has made statistics in the early stage. At present, the inventory of screw steel has increased by more than 30% compared with the same period last year. The total inventory of the hot and middle system leading areas of plate products is also at a relatively high level in recent years, which has become a psychological pressure that the market is difficult to cross. After Baosteel's plate futures price in February was flat, in addition to the rising price of silicon steel, other prices such as cold, hot rolling, galvanizing and pickling were mainly flat in the price policy of Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., which ended the rising tone for five consecutive months, showing the steel plant's relatively cautious attitude towards the market in February.

In addition, pay attention to the recent winter storage policies. At present, the winter storage policies of various steel enterprises are being introduced in succession. From the content of some policies that have been issued, the maintenance accounts for a part, and this part of the time cycle is arranged around February 7-10, that is, before the Lantern Festival. For those who prefer to lock up the goods with capital, they will be given preferential policies in terms of interest and order. The other is to simply make money to order futures, and the steel mills adhere to the operation of "not rising in case of rising, but falling in case of falling", and there is no limit on the time of delivery. Generally speaking, there is not much difference between the operation and that of the previous years. Priority should be given to ensuring that funds are in place. However, with the support of favorable macro policies and sharp rise in the futures market, the steel companies' receiving situation has increased, which may ease the pressure on their stock up during the Spring Festival and help to reduce the downward space of spot prices. Therefore, according to this idea, in the later stage, steel prices are mainly in shock consolidation. In the case of external favorable stimulation and fruitless market response, some agents or forced by inventory pressure continue to appear low out phenomenon, but the release of order pressure of steel enterprises slows down the downward space of prices. Before and after the Spring Festival, the steel market may be dominated by shocks, and some may continue to be lowered.

According to the monitoring data of Lange steel cloud business platform, today, the average price of domestic key city Ф 25mm three-level screw steel is 3276 yuan (ton price, the same below), 18 yuan higher than yesterday; the average price of domestic key city Ф 6.5mm high line is 3475 yuan, 21 yuan higher than yesterday; the average price of domestic key city 5.5mm hot rolled coil is 3762 yuan, 26 yuan higher than yesterday; the average price of domestic key city 1.0mm cold plate The average price is 4719 yuan, up 10 yuan from yesterday; the average price of 20 mm medium board in domestic key cities is 3477 yuan, up 4 yuan from yesterday.

In terms of raw materials, today, the price of 150 * 150 plain carbon billets in Tangshan is 2850 yuan, 10 yuan higher than yesterday; the price of 61.5% grade Australian Pb iron ore powder in jingtanggang is 637 yuan, 10 yuan higher than yesterday; the price of quasi primary metallurgical coke in Tangshan is 2000 yuan, 50 yuan lower than yesterday.

On the morning of the 11th trading day of the 1705 contract, the screw steel futures of the previous period opened at a high price of 3177 yuan / ton, followed by a narrow range of shocks. The whole day was lower at 3135 yuan / ton, higher at 3202 yuan / ton, and closed at 3182 yuan, 87 yuan / ton higher than the settlement price of the previous trading day (10 days), 3167658 transactions, 2471864 positions, 108998 decreases.

Hot rolled coil futures opened at a high price of 3566 yuan / ton on the morning of the 11th of 1705 contract, then fluctuated in a narrow range, with a lower price of 3501 yuan / ton and a higher price of 3595 yuan / ton all day, closing at 3569 yuan / ton, 83 yuan / ton higher than the settlement price of the previous trading day (10th), with a trading volume of 258764, positions of 352188, 18494 fewer.

Iron ore futures opened at a high price of 599 yuan / ton on the morning of the 11th of 1705 contract, then fluctuated in a narrow range, with 591.5 yuan / ton lower and 604.5 yuan / ton higher all day, and closed at 601 yuan / ton, 21 yuan higher than the settlement price of the previous trading day (10th), with 1081264 transactions, 1051130 positions and 36404 decreases.

Coke futures opened at a high price of 1690 yuan / ton on November 11, then fluctuated narrowly, 1650 yuan / ton lower and 1700 yuan / ton higher for the whole day, and closed at 1667 yuan / ton, 40 yuan higher than the settlement price of the previous trading day (10 days), with 107858 transactions, 126688 positions and 9168 positions reduced.

On the macro level, according to the world bank's global economic outlook report in January 2017, global real GDP is expected to increase by 0.4 percentage points to 2.7% in 2017, 4.2% in emerging markets, 6.5% in China and 2.2% in the United States excluding trump policy effect. According to the report, the growth rate of developed economies in 2017 is expected to pick up slightly to 1.8% from 1.6% last year. Fiscal stimulus from major economies, particularly the United States, is expected to boost domestic and global growth above expectations, but rising protectionist sentiment could have a negative impact. The growth rate of emerging market economy will accelerate to 4.2% from 3.4% last year.

In the near future, major ministries and commissions of the state have successively held working meetings to lay out the key points of 2017's work according to the general tone of "seeking progress in stability" determined by the Central Committee, and draw the "implementation plan" for the new year